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[OC] Which players would benefit and who would suffer if All-NBA teams were positionless? A strictly statistical view

2020.09.17 16:04 cilantro_samosa [OC] Which players would benefit and who would suffer if All-NBA teams were positionless? A strictly statistical view

Yesterday, Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer found that Khris Middleton had more points for this year's All-NBA ballot than Russell Westbrook and Ben Simmons, but didn't make the team because his votes were split between guard and forward. Because he received more votes as forward, he was compared against Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler. A month ago, kingwroth posted on the nba subreddit that "Positions requirements for All-NBA should be dropped". I agree with the sentiment, and on a precursory subreddit search, it looks like it's not an opinion held by a sole user.
I decided to see what All-NBA teams would look like from 1974 onwards, STRICTLY BY VORP. I wanted to be completely objective here, minimizing bias as much as possible. Also, I don't possess the acumen to choose the top 10/15 players each year for the past 46 years.
The reason for 1974 being the cutoff was that it's the year when VORP can be calculated. As for the choice of VORP, it was easily accessible for me off Basketball-Reference, and Win Shares "overrates the offense of big men with low usage".
Players with the same VORP were put on the same team rank even if the number of players on that team exceeded 5. For example: Jokic, Dame and John Wall all tied for the last spot in 2017 with 4.8 VORP. In this system, all of them get a 3rd Team selection. Similarly, Wade and Kidd tied for the last 2nd team spot with 4.9 VORP.

The 2020 Teams vs the VORP-Based Teams

Here's how the actual teams shook out.
team_rank player position
1st Anthony Davis C
1st LeBron James F
1st Giannis Antetokounmpo F
1st James Harden G
1st Luka Doncic G
2nd Nikola Jokić C
2nd Pascal Siakam F
2nd Kawhi Leonard F
2nd Chris Paul G
2nd Damian Lillard G
3rd Rudy Gobert C
3rd Jimmy Butler F
3rd Jayson Tatum F
3rd Russell Westbrook G
3rd Ben Simmons G
Here is how VORP would have made the teams.
team_rank top vorp position vorp
1st James Harden SG 7.3
1st Giannis Antetokounmpo PF 6.6
1st LeBron James PG 6.1
1st Damian Lillard PG 5.9
1st Nikola Jokić C 5.5
2nd Anthony Davis PF 5.4
2nd Luka Dončić PG 5.4
2nd Kawhi Leonard SF 5.1
2nd Jimmy Butler SF 3.7
2nd Chris Paul PG 3.5
3rd Jayson Tatum PF 3.4
3rd Bam Adebayo PF 3.3
3rd Rudy Gobert C 3.3
3rd Nikola Vučević C 3.1
3rd Trae Young PG 3.1
Davis and Doncic move down to second team, while Lillard and Jokic are promoted to first team. Butler's promoted from third team to second team. Siakam, Westbrook and Simmons are replaced by Bam, Vooch and Trae.

Some of the Greatest Players of All Time

This is the top 20 players from 1974 onwards from nba's Top 10 Survey 5 months ago.
Player 1st Team New 1st Team Old 2nd Team New 2nd Team Old 3rd Team New 3rd Team Old
Michael Jordan 11 10 0 1 0 0
LeBron James 14 13 1 2 1 1
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 10 7 2 4 0 0
Magic Johnson 10 9 2 1 0 0
Larry Bird 9 9 1 1 0 0
Kobe Bryant 5 11 5 2 1 2
Shaquille O'Neal 5 8 2 2 3 4
Tim Duncan 5 10 6 3 3 2
Hakeem Olajuwon 2 6 5 3 2 3
Stephen Curry 4 3 2 2 0 1
Kevin Durant 5 6 4 3 0 0
Dirk Nowitzki 5 4 5 5 3 3
Allen Iverson 1 3 2 3 3 1
Karl Malone 8 11 5 2 1 1
John Stockton 8 2 3 6 3 3
Julius Erving 6 5 2 2 0 0
Charles Barkley 7 5 1 5 3 1
Kevin Garnett 9 4 2 3 1 2
Steve Nash 1 2 3 2 0 3
James Harden 7 6 1 0 1 1
John Stockton gains 6 first team selections while removing 3 third team selections. Kevin Garnett adds 5 first team selections at the cost of a 2nd team and a 3rd team.
Steve Nash goes from 7 selections to 4, incredulously not garnering selections in either of his MVP years (though Shawn Marion made the 2nd team in those years).
Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal both lose 4 selections, while Tim Duncan loses 1. Kobe goes from 11 first team/2 second team/2 third team to 5/5/1. Shaq goes from 8/2/4 to 5/2/3, while Duncan goes from 10/3/2 to 5/6/3.

Biggest Winners

Bob Lanier, Artis Gilmore, Mookie Blaylock (!): all go from 0 selections to 5.
Lanier was unfortunate playing at the time of only 2 All-NBA teams and in the same era as Kareem, Cowens, McAdoo and Walton. Gilmore came a bit later and dealt with Kareem, Walton and Moses.
Blaylock never made an All-NBA team, but made the All-Star team once and All-Defense 6 times.
Other players who never made an All-NBA team but gain selections in this exercise include: Andrei Kirilenko (3), Andre Iguodala (3) and Doc Rivers (3).
Paul Pierce (4 to 8), Reggie Miller (3 to 7) and Vince Carter (2 to 6) all got 4 additional selections. Pierce's contemporaries in All-NBA selections go from Mullin and Mark Price to Wade and Westbrook. Reggie goes from Alex English and Chauncey to Pippen and Nique, while Vince goes from Starbury and Cousins to McGrady and Ewing.
David Robinson has an additional 4 first team selections, taking away 4 third team selections. Chris Paul gets 3 more first teams and an extra 3rd team at the expense of a 2nd team.

Biggest Losers

Yao Ming and LaMarcus Aldridge go from 5 selections to none. Others who lose all their selections include Tony Parker (4), Pete Maravich (3) and DeAndre Jordan (3).
Moses Malone goes from 4 first team/4 second team to 2/2. Carmelo Anthony ends up with 1 second team/1 third team after starting with 2/4.
Other players who lose 4 selections are Mitch Richmond (5 to 1), Amar'e Stoudemire (5 to 1) and Dwight Howard (8 to 4).
Here's the google sheet if you want to see all the data. This entire premise should be a decent argument that marrying stats with the eye test is key, and to never rely on just one.
submitted by cilantro_samosa to nbadiscussion [link] [comments]


2020.09.17 16:04 cilantro_samosa [OC] Which players would benefit and who would suffer if All-NBA teams were positionless? A strictly statistical view

Edit: it's come to my attention (shoutout to u/internet_poster!) that MVP voting (which is already positionless) could function as a much better proxy than VORP. It could correct the discrepancies of players like Stockton, Kobe and Shaq.
Yesterday, Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer found that Khris Middleton had more points for this year's All-NBA ballot than Russell Westbrook and Ben Simmons, but didn't make the team because his votes were split between guard and forward. Because he received more votes as forward, he was compared against Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler. A month ago, kingwroth posted that "Positions requirements for All-NBA should be dropped". I agree with the sentiment, and on a precursory subreddit search, it looks like it's not an opinion held by a sole user.
I decided to see what All-NBA teams would look like from 1974 onwards, STRICTLY BY VORP. I wanted to be completely objective here, minimizing bias as much as possible. Also, I don't possess the acumen to choose the top 10/15 players each year for the past 46 years.
The reason for 1974 being the cutoff was that it's the year when VORP can be calculated. As for the choice of VORP, it was easily accessible for me off Basketball-Reference, and Win Shares "overrates the offense of big men with low usage".
Players with the same VORP were put on the same team rank even if the number of players on that team exceeded 5. For example: Jokic, Dame and John Wall all tied for the last spot in 2017 with 4.8 VORP. In this system, all of them get a 3rd Team selection. Similarly, Wade and Kidd tied for the last 2nd team spot with 4.9 VORP.

The 2020 Teams vs the VORP-Based Teams

Here's how the actual teams shook out.
team_rank player position
1st Anthony Davis C
1st LeBron James F
1st Giannis Antetokounmpo F
1st James Harden G
1st Luka Doncic G
2nd Nikola Jokić C
2nd Pascal Siakam F
2nd Kawhi Leonard F
2nd Chris Paul G
2nd Damian Lillard G
3rd Rudy Gobert C
3rd Jimmy Butler F
3rd Jayson Tatum F
3rd Russell Westbrook G
3rd Ben Simmons G
Here is how VORP would have made the teams.
team_rank top vorp position vorp
1st James Harden SG 7.3
1st Giannis Antetokounmpo PF 6.6
1st LeBron James PG 6.1
1st Damian Lillard PG 5.9
1st Nikola Jokić C 5.5
2nd Anthony Davis PF 5.4
2nd Luka Dončić PG 5.4
2nd Kawhi Leonard SF 5.1
2nd Jimmy Butler SF 3.7
2nd Chris Paul PG 3.5
3rd Jayson Tatum PF 3.4
3rd Bam Adebayo PF 3.3
3rd Rudy Gobert C 3.3
3rd Nikola Vučević C 3.1
3rd Trae Young PG 3.1
Davis and Doncic move down to second team, while Lillard and Jokic are promoted to first team. Butler's promoted from third team to second team. Siakam, Westbrook and Simmons are replaced by Bam, Vooch and Trae.

Some of the Greatest Players of All Time

This is the top 20 players from 1974 onwards from nba's Top 10 Survey 5 months ago.
Player 1st Team New 1st Team Old 2nd Team New 2nd Team Old 3rd Team New 3rd Team Old
Michael Jordan 11 10 0 1 0 0
LeBron James 14 13 1 2 1 1
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 10 7 2 4 0 0
Magic Johnson 10 9 2 1 0 0
Larry Bird 9 9 1 1 0 0
Kobe Bryant 5 11 5 2 1 2
Shaquille O'Neal 5 8 2 2 3 4
Tim Duncan 5 10 6 3 3 2
Hakeem Olajuwon 2 6 5 3 2 3
Stephen Curry 4 3 2 2 0 1
Kevin Durant 5 6 4 3 0 0
Dirk Nowitzki 5 4 5 5 3 3
Allen Iverson 1 3 2 3 3 1
Karl Malone 8 11 5 2 1 1
John Stockton 8 2 3 6 3 3
Julius Erving 6 5 2 2 0 0
Charles Barkley 7 5 1 5 3 1
Kevin Garnett 9 4 2 3 1 2
Steve Nash 1 2 3 2 0 3
James Harden 7 6 1 0 1 1
John Stockton gains 6 first team selections while removing 3 third team selections. Kevin Garnett adds 5 first team selections at the cost of a 2nd team and a 3rd team.
Steve Nash goes from 7 selections to 4, incredulously not garnering selections in either of his MVP years (though Shawn Marion made the 2nd team in those years).
Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal both lose 4 selections, while Tim Duncan loses 1. Kobe goes from 11 first team/2 second team/2 third team to 5/5/1. Shaq goes from 8/2/4 to 5/2/3, while Duncan goes from 10/3/2 to 5/6/3.

Biggest Winners

Bob Lanier, Artis Gilmore, Mookie Blaylock (!): all go from 0 selections to 5.
Lanier was unfortunate playing at the time of only 2 All-NBA teams and in the same era as Kareem, Cowens, McAdoo and Walton. Gilmore came a bit later and dealt with Kareem, Walton and Moses.
Blaylock never made an All-NBA team, but made the All-Star team once and All-Defense 6 times.
Other players who never made an All-NBA team but gain selections in this exercise include: Andrei Kirilenko (3), Andre Iguodala (3) and Doc Rivers (3).
Paul Pierce (4 to 8), Reggie Miller (3 to 7) and Vince Carter (2 to 6) all got 4 additional selections. Pierce's contemporaries in All-NBA selections go from Mullin and Mark Price to Wade and Westbrook. Reggie goes from Alex English and Chauncey to Pippen and Nique, while Vince goes from Starbury and Cousins to McGrady and Ewing.
David Robinson has an additional 4 first team selections, taking away 4 third team selections. Chris Paul gets 3 more first teams and an extra 3rd team at the expense of a 2nd team.

Biggest Losers

Yao Ming and LaMarcus Aldridge go from 5 selections to none. Others who lose all their selections include Tony Parker (4), Pete Maravich (3) and DeAndre Jordan (3).
Moses Malone goes from 4 first team/4 second team to 2/2. Carmelo Anthony ends up with 1 second team/1 third team after starting with 2/4.
Other players who lose 4 selections are Mitch Richmond (5 to 1), Amar'e Stoudemire (5 to 1) and Dwight Howard (8 to 4).
Here's the google sheet if you want to see all the data. This entire premise should be a decent argument that marrying stats with the eye test is key, and to never rely on just one.
submitted by cilantro_samosa to nba [link] [comments]


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